Download Climate Variability, Predictability and Climate Risks: A by Heinz Wanner, Martin Grosjean, Regine Röthlisberger, Elena PDF

By Heinz Wanner, Martin Grosjean, Regine Röthlisberger, Elena Xoplaki

Heinz Wanner is the top of the weather examine staff and Director of the NCRR administration Center.

Martin Grosjean is

Regine Rothlisberger is a technology Officer with the NCCR weather administration Center.

Elena Xoplaki is a technological know-how Officer with the NCCR weather administration Center.

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Additional resources for Climate Variability, Predictability and Climate Risks: A European Perspective

Sample text

In some applications, substitutes of climate models are used that take the form of pulse response models. The latter assume a linearity of the response but dramatically increase the computational efficiency (Joos and Bruno 1996). Alternatively a neural-network approach formally removes the linearity assumption but does not necessarily replicate the system’s non-linear characteristics (Knutti et al. 2003). In the next sub-sections we review approaches of assessing uncertainty using models of different complexity.

2, a range of these models have been and are currently used to study specific aspects of the climate system and to examine the accompanying sensitivity (cf. Figure 2). Examples are energy balance models (EBMs), radiative-convective models (RCMs), statistical dynamical models (SDMs), and quasi–geostrophic (QG) models. , Budyko 1969; Sellers 1969; North et al. 1981). They may also include a moisture balance equation when coupled to ocean models. Transport in EBMs is usually parametrised by eddy diffusion.

Nature 433:613–617 New M, Hulme M, Jones PD (2000) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: Development of 1901–1996 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13:2217–2238 Overpeck J, Hughen K, Hardy D, Bradley R, Case R, Douglas M, Finney, B, Gajewski K, Jacoby G, Jennings A, Lamoureux S, Lasca A, MacDonald G, Moore J, Retelle M, Smith S, Wolfe A, Zielinski G (1997) Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries. Science 278:1251–1256 Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Casty C, Wanner H (2006) 500 years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation.

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